Hello and happy autumn! I hope this finds you well.

This newsletter has links to the following reports:

October 2022 SF real estate market

Macroeconomic indicators-Bay Area

Bay Area market cycles since 1990

Psychology in Buyer and Seller markets

Bay Area Real Estate Survey

From my personal perspective, there has definitely been a slow down in activity since our very busy spring season. Open houses have been sparsely attended. However, all my listings have successfully sold even if it takes a bit longer than we’ve been used to. There are definitely buyers out there looking to take advantage of the adjustment in prices.

As always, I would love to hear from you to reconnect. If you have any real estate questions or referral needs, please feel free to reach out. Happy Halloween!

Best,

Pota

On the supply and demand

side, it appears that after the big drop in demand in early-mid summer, conditions have mostly stabilized.

Generally speaking, sales numbers are no longer appreciably dropping, though overbidding statistics continue to decline

and days on market to climb.

When looking at recent market changes, it is important to remember how overheated the market was in 2021 and

early 2022 – many quarter-to-quarter, and year-over-year comparisons are distorted by the unusual

(sometimes frenzied) conditions that prevailed then.

It is also wise not to jump to definitive conclusions based

upon a single quarter's data: The economy and real estate market are still in a period of adjustment.

Comparisons with the crash of 2008 continue to be made, but the precipitating factor in the 2008 crash – tens of millions

of households talked into home loans they could never afford, forcing a tsunami of frantic sales during

the great recession – simply does not apply today.

Mortgage payments as a percentage of income, and loan

delinquency rates are both close to all-time lows; most homeowners' mortgages are held at historically low rates

. There has been no surge of desperate sellers: New listing numbers are actually down from last year. Stock market

declines, though substantial, cannot compare with those seen in 2008-2009, and employment remains very

strong. This is not to minimize the correction the market is going through: There are certainly major economic

and demographic challenges at play right now, but a market correction is not a crash, being more like a slow

leak in an over-pressurized tire than a blowout on the highway at high speed.

The relatively short autumn selling season began after Labor Day and runs through mid-November. The mid-

winter holiday slowdown then runs through mid-January. Though sales continue in every month of the year,

listing and sale activity drops dramatically as we near Thanksgiving. Slower markets can offer opportunities to buyers

, but the selection of homes for sale usually tumbles.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future

, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith

analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered

very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate.