Our spring market has been very active. For reasons described below, there has been little inventory and high demand, especially for single family homes.
In my own experience, working with both buyers and sellers, every sale I’ve been involved in this year had multiple offers and overbidding. I don’t see that many cash offers, but there are a few. Some buyers are putting as little as 10% down while others are putting 60% down or more.
San Francisco has so many micro-markets, general statistics can only go so far. If you have questions about a particular market segment, please give me a call. And if you need a referral outside of SF, I have an excellent Realtor referral network I can tap into for you.
I hope you have a great summer ☀️
Pota
Pota’s real estate corner
Representing buyer
Potrero Hill
588 De Haro Street
3 BD 3 BA 1585 SF $2,275,000
Fantastic Views! This new construction condo in a boutique 2 Unit, features Bay Bridge & downtown SF views, 3 decks & 3 levels of living space. The entry level foyer w/ coat & storage closets leads to 2 bedrooms at the back of the property overlooking landscaped gardens. A full bathroom & generous laundry closet complete this level. The bright main living area on the next level opens to a gorgeous kitchen w/stone countertops, stainless steel sub zero refrigerator, wolf range & dishwasher. This open concept level includes a dining space with picture window framing the city skyline view and features wall to wall glass doors which stack to open to a patio with North city and Bay view, perfect for indoor/outdoor entertaining. The next level features a powder bath, and a large primary bedroom with en suite custom stone tiled bath and double vanity. Glass doors open to a small private outdoor space. This room features views of downtown skyline. Stairs up from this level lead to the roof deck w/ North City and Water views! Radiant heat & water harvesting landscape system. Deeded Parking for 1+ car(s) Storage. 97% walk score.
Central Waterfront-Dogpatch
950 Tennessee Street, Unit 302
1 BD 1 BA 959 SF $995,000
This extremely bright end-unit is waiting to welcome you home in one of San Francisco's fastest growing neighborhoods. You'll find one generously sized bedroom with floor-to-ceiling windows and a flexible den space that can be used as a second bedroom or office space. The living room, dining room and kitchen are combined in an open floor plan and the flow between them is sensical and spacious. Modern Danish-inspired charm casts a comfortable yet elegant vibe throughout the unit. Want to enjoy the skyline views? Head up to the shared rooftop deck with built-in BBQ, firepits, and unencumbered SF scenery. Upgrades include new light fixtures, custom mechanized blinds and California Closets. Parking is a breeze with your own reserved spot in a secure garage with interior access via elevator. A daytime lobby attendant welcomes your guests and securely receives and stores packages. Amenities in the neighborhood are nearly too plentiful to list with something for everyone: Esprit and Crane Cove Parks for those looking for outdoor space; the new Restoration Hardware joins a plethora of established local restaurants for the food-seekers; and, just blocks away are Chase Center and Oracle Park for the sports fans. Come catch the city vibe!
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
Hello and happy Spring! I hope this finds you
well.
This newsletter has links to the following reports:
February 2023 SF real estate
market
Macroeconomic indicators-Bay Area
Bay Area market cycles since 1990
Bay Area market reports
Just click on the image to see a flip book containing the
report. Save this newsletter as the links will always contain the most updated information.
As always, I would love to hear from you to reconnect. If you have any real estate
questions or referral needs, please feel free to reach out. Enjoy the cherry
blossoms!
Best,
Pota
Early 2023 Data
Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In
In the 11-county, greater Bay Area, accepted-offer
activity in December 2022 and closed sales volume in January 2023 generally hit their lowest
monthly points in 15 years.
Typically, after the long holiday slowdown, the market
just begins to wake up in mid-January before accelerating into spring. That being said, inflation
has dropped substantially since June and interest rates since November, home prices are well
down from last spring, stock markets are up 8% (S&P) to 15% (Nasdaq) YTD as of 2/3/23
(albeit with continuing volatility), and despite escalating layoffs in high tech, early indications in
2023 point to rebounding buyer demand. Open house traffic has jumped, more buyers are
requesting listing disclosure packages, and there have been increasing reports of multiple offers
and (often unexpected) overbidding of asking price. Based on this preliminary data (much of it
still anecdotal*), it appears that buyer demand severely repressed by economic conditions in the
2nd half of 2022 has begun to bounce back.
A similar rebound began in
mid-late summer 2022 for similar reasons – a significant drop in mortgage rates and a large rise
in stock markets – which then quickly faded when positive economic developments went into
reverse. Market activity then slowed further through the rest of 2022. There are currently
considerable hopes for a more lasting economic recovery in 2023.
During the long
high-tech and pandemic housing boom – which peaked in April/May 2022 – as each year
began, the classic dynamic was for buyers to jump back into the market much more quickly than
sellers, creating an immediate imbalance between supply and demand. Too few new listings
compared to the quantity of motivated buyers sparked often ferocious bidding wars, leading to
considerable home price gains virtually every spring. It is too early to conclude, after the general
price declines and steep drops in market activity seen in the 2nd half of 2022, that a sustained
recovery in market conditions is now underway, and if it is, how quickly it will develop and its
impact on prices in 2023. Many economic conditions remain challenging – with critical indicators
still much weaker on a year-over-year basis – and forecasts by economists and analysts vary
widely. Hopefully, economic conditions will continue to improve, providing the foundation for the
recovery in real estate. In the meantime, preliminary indicators are surprisingly positive.
February and March listing and sales data will begin to better reflect early 2023
conditions.
Click on image below for the SF February 2023
Report
Click below for Bay Area Market Reports
(These links are continuously updated for the most recent
information)
Click on image below for Macroeconomic indicators related to Bay
Area Real
Estate
(Mortgage rates,
inflation and more)
Click on image below for Bay Area
market cycles since 1990
Click on
image below for Bay Area Population and Migration Data
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
Hello and happy autumn! I hope this finds you well.
This newsletter has links to the following reports:
October 2022 SF real estate market
Macroeconomic indicators-Bay Area
Bay Area market cycles since 1990
Psychology in Buyer and Seller markets
Bay Area Real Estate Survey
Bay Area market reports
Just click on the image to see a flip book containing the report. It provides many metrics of the current market as well as a discussion about whether it is a Buyer’s market or a Seller’s market.
From my personal perspective, there has definitely been a slow down in activity since our very busy spring season. Open houses have been sparsely attended. However, all my listings have successfully sold even if it takes a bit longer than we’ve been used to. There are definitely buyers out there looking to take advantage of the adjustment in prices.
As always, I would love to hear from you to reconnect. If you have any real estate questions or referral needs, please feel free to reach out. Happy Halloween!
Best,
Pota
From our analyst about the market:
Virtually across the Bay Area, Q3 median sales prices retreated dramatically from their spring peaks, and SF was hit
harder than most area markets. Part of this was due to seasonal trends – median sales prices often peak for the
calendar year in Q2, then drop in summer – but part of the decline was clearly due to changing market conditions
prompted by shifts in interest rates, inflation, stock markets, and consumer confidence.
On the supply and demand
side, it appears that after the big drop in demand in early-mid summer, conditions have mostly stabilized.
Generally speaking, sales numbers are no longer appreciably dropping, though overbidding statistics continue to decline
and days on market to climb.
When looking at recent market changes, it is important to remember how overheated the market was in 2021 and
early 2022 – many quarter-to-quarter, and year-over-year comparisons are distorted by the unusual
(sometimes frenzied) conditions that prevailed then.
It is also wise not to jump to definitive conclusions based
upon a single quarter's data: The economy and real estate market are still in a period of adjustment.
Comparisons with the crash of 2008 continue to be made, but the precipitating factor in the 2008 crash – tens of millions
of households talked into home loans they could never afford, forcing a tsunami of frantic sales during
the great recession – simply does not apply today.
Mortgage payments as a percentage of income, and loan
delinquency rates are both close to all-time lows; most homeowners' mortgages are held at historically low rates
. There has been no surge of desperate sellers: New listing numbers are actually down from last year. Stock market
declines, though substantial, cannot compare with those seen in 2008-2009, and employment remains very
strong. This is not to minimize the correction the market is going through: There are certainly major economic
and demographic challenges at play right now, but a market correction is not a crash, being more like a slow
leak in an over-pressurized tire than a blowout on the highway at high speed.
The relatively short autumn selling season began after Labor Day and runs through mid-November. The mid-
winter holiday slowdown then runs through mid-January. Though sales continue in every month of the year,
listing and sale activity drops dramatically as we near Thanksgiving. Slower markets can offer opportunities to buyers
, but the selection of homes for sale usually tumbles.
Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future
, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith
analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered
very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate.
Click on image below for the SF October 2022 Report
Click on image below for Macroeconomic indicators related to Bay
Area Real Estate
Click on image below for Bay Area market cycles since 1990
Click on image below for Statistics, Psychology, Expectations, and Buyers' & Sellers' Markets
Click image below for Oct 2022 Bay Area Real Estate Survey
Happy Spring! May’s newsletter has insightful
information about the impact of the recent interest rate increases on our real estate market, as
well as general market insights and the current cooling trend in the market. It’s difficult to
generalize however, as there were multiple offers in the past couple of offers I have written for
buyers, and the winning bids were quite a bit higher than expected.
Please do not hesitate to reach out with any real estate questions, vendor needs, or if you
need a Realtor in a different area.
Compass now offers us a great tool to handpick top agents for our referral needs.
In the meantime, have a great summer. I hope you have some plans to do something fun :
)
This month's
newsletter has links to real-time real estate information for SF and the entire bay area that is
continually being updated.
It includes SF
home median prices by neighborhood, Bay Area Market Reports, current SF Homes for sale by
neighborhood, and more.
The links (the
black boxes) can be saved for future reference as they will always be current.
I’m always available for real estate questions, Realtor referrals outside SF, vendor
referrals, and anything else real estate or non-real estate related.
The most up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of San
Francisco home prices, values, conditions and trends of the SF Bay Area residential real estate
market. These links auto update to be the most current.
Compass is a real
estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under
multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761,
1997075,
1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material
presented
herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed
reliable
but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made
without
notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and
square
footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity.
I hope this finds you well. Our SF real estate market is exhibiting its typical early Spring
season characteristics. Limited supply and pent up demand. We’ll have a better sense of the spring
market in a couple of months after the spring inventory comes on the market so we can start tracking
price trends. I’ll check in with you in a couple of months. Until then, here is some seasonal and historic
data on home values, interest rates, market cycles and on the various influences that can affect real
estate values.
If you have any real
estate questions, please give me a call. For those of you who have sent me referrals of buyers and
sellers, thank you very much! I appreciate you thinking of me when thinking real estate! Please keep
those referrals coming. I love working with your friends, colleagues, and family members : )
Best regards,
Pota
Pota’s Real Estate Corner
I just represented the buyers of
this Forest Knolls home. Competed against 5 offers.
Pota Perimenis is committed to providing an accessible website. If you have difficulty accessing content, have difficulty viewing a file on the website, or notice any accessibility problems, please contact us at (415) 407-2595 to specify the nature of the accessibility issue and any assistive technology you use. We strive to provide the content you need in the format you require.
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