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Category Archives: SF Market Statistics
The San Francisco Luxury Home Market
The San Francisco Luxury Home Market
Homes of $2 Million & Above
Auto-Updating Market Analytics
The bar charts compare year-over-year data, going back 2 years, for the latest month. The line charts track monthly data over a period of 3 to 5 years. Note that it can take 7 to 15 days after a month’s end for agents to enter in transaction data pertinent to the month in question, so statistics for the latest month can sometimes change significantly as this data is added to calculations.
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The San Francisco Luxury Home Market
Homes of $2 Million & Above
Auto-Updating Market Analytics
The bar charts compare year-over-year data for the latest month. The line charts track monthly data over a period of 3 to 5 years. Note that it can take 7 to 15 days after a month’s end for agents to enter in transaction data pertinent to the month in question, so statistics can change as this data is added to calculations.
Moving your cursor over the line charts will reveal monthly data.
Seasonality plays a significant role in luxury real estate statistics as the market ebbs and flows during active and less active sales seasons. Typically, the market is most active in the spring and fall, and much slower in the summer and, especially, the mid-winter holidays.
Moving your cursor over the line charts will reveal monthly data.
New Listings Coming on Market, by Month
September is usually the single biggest month for new high-end home listings.
Spring is typically the most active season for new listings.
New listing activity plunges during the mid-summer and mid-winter holidays.
Total Number of Active Listings for Sale during Month
Number of Listings Accepting Offers, by Month
Number of Sales, by Month
Percentage of Listings Selling for over Asking Price, by Month
Median Percentage of List Price Achieved on Sale
Over 100% usually signifies competitive overbidding;
under 100% signifies more aggressive buyer negotiation.
Median Dollar per Square Foot (upon Sale)
3-Month Rolling Average
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), by Month
The lower the MSI, the greater the buyer demand as compared
to the inventory of listings available to buy.
Median Days on Market before Acceptance of Offer
3-Month Rolling Average
Expensive Home Sales by San Francisco District & Neighborhood
Note that these charts using differing price points for the “luxury home” designation.
Other reports you might find interesting:
Market Analytics for General SF Market
30+ Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles
San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability
10 Big Factors behind the San Francisco Real Estate Market
Bay Area Apartment Building Market
Link to San Francisco Neighborhood Map
It is the relationship between supply and demand that defines the state of the market. Looking at one statistic such as the number of sales, without comparing it to how many listings were available to purchase, may give a distorted view of market conditions. Some statistics, such as months supply of inventory take both supply and demand into account. Last but not least, short-term statistics sometimes fluctuate without great meaningfulness - longer-term trends are always most meaningful.
Sales data usually reflects market activity, i.e. when a new listing comes on market and offers are negotiated, occurring 4 to 8 weeks before the sale date. Thus, for example, sales in June mostly reflect new listings and offers negotiated in late April and May.
These charts were generated using the Infosparks system by Paragon’s chief market analyst. The statistics only reflect activity reported to MLS, and many new-project-condo sales are not reported. Data is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge
San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge
Non-Luxury House Market Remains White Hot
Supply & Demand Balance Shifts in Condo Market
Luxury Condo Market Continues to Cool
April 2016 report, including 15 custom charts
In the first quarter of 2016, various market segments in the city began to trend in significantly different directions. Houses, especially those below $2 million, are still often selling in a frenzy of bidding: Recent reports of houses selling with 5, 10 or more competing offers are not uncommon, especially in neighborhoods considered more affordable (by San Francisco standards). Demand remains very high, supply remains extremely low, and new house construction is virtually nil.
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San Francisco Real Estate Market Report March 2016, including 13 custom charts.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Report March 2016, including 13 custom charts.
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San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability
San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability
Where a buyer is most likely to find a home in the price segment they’re looking in, whether under $1 million or over $5 million.
Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco
for the Money You Want to Spend
for the Money You Want to Spend
February 2016 Report on Neighborhood Home Prices
A city neighborhood map is provided at the bottom of this analysis.
The charts below are based upon San Francisco home sales reported to MLS in the 10 to 12 months through February 15, 2016, breaking out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. Other neighborhoods not listed did have smaller numbers of sales within given price segments.
Where to Buy a HOUSE for under $1 million
The overall median HOUSE price in the city in the 4th quarter of 2015 was $1,250,000, so the under million-dollar house is becoming increasingly less common. The vast majority of house sales in this price segment now occur in a large swath of neighborhoods running across the southern border of the city, which are by far its most affordable house markets: from Bayview through Portola, Excelsior, Visitacion Valley and Crocker Amazon, to Oceanview and Ingleside.
The chart’s horizontal columns reflect the number of sales of houses with at least 2 bedrooms, with parking, for under $1 million, while the median sales prices noted are for all 2BR house sales during the period. Median price provides a good idea of overall neighborhood house prices.
Where to Buy a CONDO, CO-OP OR TIC for under $1 million
The overall SF median condo price in the 4th quarter of 2015 was about $1,100,000, and sales under $1m still occur in almost every area of the city that features these property types – but a studio unit in Russian Hill may cost as much as a 2-bedroom condo in Diamond Heights.
Of these property types, condos make up about 90% of sales, stock co-op apartments 1 to 2%, with TICs making up the balance. TICs typically sell at a significant discount (10% - 20%) to similar condos.
The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m broken out by 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units. The box of median sales prices is just for 1BR units, again simply to give an idea of relative values between neighborhoods.
Spending $1 Million to $1.5 Million in San Francisco
In this price point for houses, one starts moving into another layer of neighborhoods in the west and the central-south areas of the city: Central Sunset and Parkside, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Mission Terrace, Bernal Heights and others as shown. There has been a lot of upward pressure on these areas in the past 2 years in particular.
The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales, with the average dollar per square foot values for the homes in this price range noted alongside.
Condo and co-op sales in this price range are mostly concentrated in those areas where newer condo developments have surged onto market over the past 10 – 15 years, and continue to arrive in increasing numbers – South Beach, Inner Mission, Hayes Valley, Dogpatch, SoMa – as well as in high-end neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights, Russian Hill and the greater Noe-Eureka Valleys area.
Buying a HOUSE for $1.5 million to $2 million
Buying a HOUSE for $2 million to $2.5 million
When you get to the $2 to 2.5 million dollars range, the house market becomes dominated by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, the St. Francis Wood-Forest Hill district, the Potrero Hill-Inner Mission area, and the Inner-Central Richmond and Lake Street area.
Buying a LUXURY HOME in San Francisco
For the sake of this report, houses selling for $2.5 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated (somewhat arbitrarily) as luxury home sales. What you get in different neighborhoods for your millions of dollars will vary widely. Views often play a significant role in SF home values, but particularly in the luxury condo market, where the most expensive units often offer staggering views from very high floors. Over the past 15 years – and accelerating in the current market recovery – there have occurred some very large shifts in the luxury home market, with districts other than the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods becoming major destinations for (very) high-end homebuyers. However the northern neighborhoods like Pacific Heights still dominate the ultra-high end in SF: houses selling for $5 million or more. The greater South Beach-Yerba Buena area, with its many new luxury condo towers now has more luxury condo sales than any other area.
Luxury CONDO, CO-OP & TIC Sales
Luxury HOUSE Sales
San Francisco Neighborhood Map
For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive
map of neighborhood values can be found here: SF Neighborhood
Home-Price Map
Other updated reports you might find interesting:
Our Most Recent Market Analyses
30+ Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles: This is by far the most popular article on our website – for 3 years running.
San Francisco Market Overview Analytics: Interactive, auto-updating charts for all the standard real estate statistics – median sales price, average dollar per square foot, days on market, months supply of inventory, listings for sale, and so on.
San Francisco District Sales Overview: A breakdown of sales by price segment for 14 different sections of the city.
10 Big Factors behind the San Francisco Real Estate Market: A review of the major economic, political and demographic issues underlying the city’s current market.
As always, the quality of the specific location and the range of amenities of the property; its curb appeal, condition, size and graciousness; and the existence and quality of parking, views and outside space can all significantly impact unit values.
© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 – 6 weeks earlier. Median sales prices often change with even the smallest change in the period of time or parameters of the analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate.
© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group
San Francisco Home Price Appreciation
San Francisco Home Price Appreciation
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SF Bay Area Apartment Market Report
The San Francisco Apartment Building Market in 2015
A review of market values, conditions and trends,
illustrated with 18 custom charts.
illustrated with 18 custom charts.
January 2016, Paragon Commercial Brokerage
Some charts below apply specifically to smaller, 2-4 unit buildings, others to larger, 5+ unit properties, and some to both. Each segment has distinct market dynamics. The first 2 charts illustrate the year over year decline in sales volume, but the continuing increase in values.
This past autumn saw dramatic volatility in financial markets worldwide, which is now surging again in early 2016. Such volatility generates uncertainty, which can slow real estate markets as buyers wait for events to clarify, but it does not typically have a significant impact on real estate values unless there is sustained, negative movement. In the past year, concerns have also been voiced regarding mortgage interest rate increases, which so far have not materialized, and more locally, increasing apartment construction, housing affordability, and possibly over-valued, high-tech unicorns, and their potential impacts on employment, housing demand, prices and rents. There is a bewildering array of subtle, complex and interconnected moving parts in world, national and local, political and economic conditions right now. However, in our experience, there are often opportunities whatever the market conditions, for savvy, longer-term investors prepared to exploit them.
As seen above, 2015 saw a small drop in the sales of smaller, 2-4 unit apartment buildings in San Francisco, similar to that seen in the homes market. (It is not unusual for these buildings to have an owner occupier and/or be sold to buyers planning to occupy). There was a much bigger decline in the sales of larger, 5+ unit, investment properties: The latter drop reflected more a decline in portfolio sales (one owner, sometimes a financial institution, selling multiple properties) and an increased reluctance of owners to sell, than, so far, any substantial decline in buyer demand. Indeed, multiple offers on attractive listings remained common, the average sales price for 5+ unit buildings was almost 4% above asking price (7% for 2-4 unit buildings), and values continued to rise in 2015.
With low interest rates and soaring rents, many SF apartment buildings have become cash-generating machines, and prospective sellers would be challenged to find comparable returns in other investments. This reduces the motivation to sell and cash out. Furthermore, owners who might typically sell in order to buy larger buildings for better economies of scale via a 1031 exchange are daunted themselves by the difficulty of finding suitable upleg properties within the tight time constraints of tax law.
The first 4 to 6 weeks of the year are a slow period in real estate and the next tangible indication of market direction will come after the market begins to wake up in late-winter/ early spring.
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San Francisco is a boutique market for apartment buildings, with the great preponderance of its sales in smaller buildings. Sales of larger properties, especially over 12 or 15 units, are relatively rare (and highly sought after). The market is mostly concentrated in a handful of districts, many of them built out in the first few decades of the last century, a period of great gracefulness of apartment construction.
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Prices, Values & Appreciation Trends
By San Francisco Neighborhood and District
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Supply & Demand
This chart below illustrates the year over year decline in new listings, total listing inventory and closed sales in the 5+ unit building market. The Prop G effect in Q3 2014 relates to an SF ballot proposal that struck horror in investors, but which subsequently failed at the ballot box: During that quarter, new inventory jumped while sales plunged. The market bounced back in Q4 2014 as relieved buyers leapt back in to take advantage of the increased supply, but then the conditions mentioned previously created a significant drop in both new listings and sales in 2015.
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Residential Rent Trends & Comparisons
The city has seen a staggering increase in market-rate rents over the past 6 years, making it the most expensive rental market in the country. (See third chart below.) However, some firms that track average or median rents (each with their own methodology) have suggested that SF rents have recently either plateaued or ticked down (second chart below). Rents continued to increase in Oakland, which though expensive by any national measure, is still much more affordable than San Francisco. It is too early to come to any conclusions as to whether a supply-and-demand, affordability, or high-tech hiring inflection point has been reached in San Francisco, as market lulls and fluctuations are not uncommon.
In the first chart below, note that San Francisco rents fell far more after the dotcom bubble popped in 2001, and the resulting loss of thousands of high-tech jobs (see employment graph further below), than after the much larger, financial-markets crash of 2008. There is much vehement disagreement right now as to whether there are or are not meaningful parallels between the current high-tech boom and the earlier dotcom boom.
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San Francisco Employment
Increased employment, driving both a growing population and growing wealth, is probably the single greatest factor behind the city housing market. Notice how closely the chart below mirrors the earlier chart on annual rent appreciation.
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Interest Rate Trends
This chart pertains to home-mortgage rates, not investment-property interest rates, but the dynamics are similar. Over the course of 2015, interest rates increased by a negligible one seventh of one percent, remaining close to historic lows. Since the Fed announced its first increase in 7 years in mid-December, conforming loan rates went from 3.95% to 3.92% (as of January 14). Interest rates play a huge role in all real estate markets, and though many predict they will rise appreciably in 2016, financial-markets volatility may keep them low. It is famously difficult to predict interest rates movements with any accuracy.
In November, we issued a short update on new-housing construction in San Francisco, another important factor in the supply and demand dynamic. There are currently tens of thousands of new housing units, of all kinds, somewhere in the Planning Department pipeline: San Francisco New-Housing Pipeline
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Q4 2015 Sales of 5+ Unit Apartment Buildings
There are so many variables at work in the SF multi-unit market, in location, size, unit mix, condition, pride-of-ownership, tenant-profile, the impact of rent control on income, and upside potential in rents (upon vacancy), that it is difficult to compare sales statistics between buildings without knowing the details. However, here is a look at some of the major financial parameters of sales of 5+ unit buildings in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Please contact me if you would like further details on any of the sales listed,
or on properties currently available to purchase.
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Apartment Building Sales by Broker
In 2015, Paragon Commercial Brokerage represented more buyers and sellers in successful San Francisco apartment building transactions than any other brokerage. Paragon led in the number of transactions, as well as in the dollar volume of sales closed.
Our residential brokerage recently released its survey of the San Francisco homes market last year, which can be found here: The SF Residential Market in 2015
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All information is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors, is not warranted and subject to revision. Statistics are generalities that typically disguise an immense variety of specifics in the individual, underlying sales. Numbers should be considered estimates and approximations, and how these statistics apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
© 2016 Paragon Commercial Brokerage
Median Home Prices, Reflecting MLS Sales Reported 4/1/15 – 12/7/15
Median Home Prices, Reflecting MLS Sales Reported 4/1/15 – 12/7/15
Luxury Homes Cool. Affordable still hot. November 2015 market report
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Autumn Homes Market and Volatility
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